Methods & Data
Definitions. "Stop" is the high accepted yield for coupon securities, the high discount rate for bills and, for floating-rate notes, the high discount margin (the spread over the 13-week bill index they are auctioned on) — never mixed. Each auction counts under the term it was sold at: when Treasury reopens an older note as that month's 2-, 3- or 5-year issue (the 5-year auction of February 25, 2025 reopened a 2023 7-year note), it is a 5-year auction here. Treasury's small-value test auctions ($25 million, announced and held the same day, open to primary dealers only, such as the 10-year reopening of June 21, 2019) are left out of the history, the ranks and the recap: the figures are Treasury's own, but a test auction's 100% dealer take and high bid-to-cover say nothing about demand. The high–median spread (stop minus median accepted rate) is shown as the tail proxy: the true tail versus the 1 p.m. when-issued quote is not published by Treasury. Takedown percentages are shares of competitive accepted awards. Percentile ranks compare each metric to the auctions of the same type and term, reopenings included, in the 10 years before the latest one (all history when there are fewer than 8), whatever "History since" shows; each card names that group and its size. The recap paragraph is generated deterministically from those ranks — same numbers in, same words out — and its closing sentence follows a fixed rule: the average of four percentiles (bid-to-cover, indirect take, 100 minus dealer take and 100 minus the tail proxy) reads as a firm auction at 65 or above, a soft auction at 35 or below and a near-median auction in between.
Data: TreasuryDirect auction results API (U.S. Department of the Treasury, public domain), full history: notes/bonds to 1979, bid-to-cover from 1994, takedown split from April 2008, floating-rate notes from January 2014. Announced-but-unauctioned securities are excluded until results post.
Full formulas, glossary, and data sources: Methods & Data.
Calculations used: #26 Auction demand metrics (tail proxy & takedown).
Data sources: U.S. Treasury (TreasuryDirect, FiscalData, par-yield file).
Disclaimers
The high-median spread is shown as a proxy for the auction tail; the true tail against the 1 p.m. when-issued quote is not published.
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury.
Not investment advice. This tool is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or to pursue any investment strategy. Data is believed reliable but is not guaranteed. F/m Investments, LLC is an investment adviser registered with the SEC; registration does not constitute an endorsement nor indicate any particular level of skill or ability. © 2026 F/m Investments LLC.
