Methods & Data
The gauges. Sahm rule (real-time): 3-month average unemployment minus its 12-month low, trips at or above +0.50pp. 2s10s: 10-year minus 2-year CMT, trips below zero (a reading of exactly zero does not trip it). Credit gap: BIS credit-to-GDP gap for the US, the Basel warning line, trips at or above +10pp. HY OAS percentile: the share of complete month-ends since December 1996 on which the ICE BofA high-yield spread was below its newest reading, trips at or above the 80th; the spread's month-ends from December 1996 to May 2023 come from F/m's ICE data license, the later ones through the FRED® API. CFNAI: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, 3-month average, trips at or below -0.70. Each reading is compared with its line as the page prints it (two decimals; the percentile as a whole number).
Full formulas, glossary, and data sources: Methods & Data.
Calculations used: #60 Threshold gauge panel (recession dials).
Data sources: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago; Bank for International Settlements; ICE BofA indices (ICE Data Indices, LLC); Claudia Sahm (Sahm rule recession indicator).
Disclaimers
The dials often disagree because some lead the cycle and some move with it, so the count of tripped dials is context, not a probability.
This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. ICE BofA index data © ICE Data Indices, LLC. Recent data obtained via the FRED® API; history before mid-2023 from F/m's ICE data license. ICE® is a registered trademark of ICE Data Indices, LLC or its affiliates and BofA® is a registered trademark of Bank of America Corporation, licensed by Bank of America Corporation and its affiliates, and may not be used without prior written approval.
Not a forecast by F/m. Not investment advice. This tool is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or to pursue any investment strategy. Data is believed reliable but is not guaranteed. F/m Investments, LLC is an investment adviser registered with the SEC; registration does not constitute an endorsement nor indicate any particular level of skill or ability. © 2026 F/m Investments LLC.