Methods & Data
The pressure score. A 0-100 composite of four inflation lenses, each scored 0-100 and weighted: level (40%) — underlying inflation, the median of core PCE, core CPI, Cleveland median CPI, Dallas trimmed-mean PCE and Atlanta sticky-core CPI, scored against the Fed's 2% goal; momentum (25%) — core PCE's 3-month annualized rate minus its 12-month rate (accelerating vs decelerating); breadth (20%) — the share of CPI components with 12-month inflation at 2% or more, the moderate and hot buckets of CPI component diffusion (Methods & Data calculation 54: the same components, buckets and shares); and expectations (15%) — market-implied inflation (the 10-year breakeven) at the month's end and its 6-month change. The needle is the composite; the verdict pairs the level read (cool / near-target / warm / hot) with the momentum read (rising / steady / cooling).
The verdict's rule. Each read is a fixed threshold on its figures at two decimals, as the page prints them. Level, from underlying inflation: cool (below target) below 1.5%, near target from 1.5% to below 2.5%, warm from 2.5% to below 3.5%, hot at 3.5% or more. Momentum, from the acceleration (core PCE's 3-month annualized rate minus its 12-month rate) and the 6-month trend (underlying inflation minus its reading six months earlier): rising when the acceleration is above +0.15 pp or the trend is above +0.2 pp; cooling when the acceleration is below −0.15 pp and the trend is below 0; steady otherwise. Both figures are on the Momentum card. When underlying inflation has no reading six months earlier, the trend is not available and counts as 0 pp in these tests. The verdict's color is the score's zone on the dial: cool below 38, near target 38 to below 55, warm 55 to below 72, hot at 72 or more.
Data: FRED — PCEPILFE, CPILFESL, MEDCPIM094SFRBCLE, PCETRIM12M159SFRBDAL, CORESTICKM159SFRBATL, T10YIE, and the CPI-U component indexes (CUUR0000S series) for breadth.
Data notes. The weights and thresholds are F/m’s choice, not a market standard, and other weightings are reasonable. The component measures publish on different lags (PCE trails CPI by a month), so the score is for the newest month in which every core measure is published, and all four lenses read that month.
Full formulas, glossary, and data sources: Methods & Data.
Calculations used: #77 Inflation outlook — the composite pressure score & verdict.
Data sources: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland; Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Disclaimers
Illustrative and educational: a summary of published data, not a recommendation. The weights and thresholds are F/m's judgment, not a market standard.
This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. BLS.gov cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from BLS.gov.
Not a forecast by F/m. Not investment advice. This tool is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or to pursue any investment strategy. Data is believed reliable but is not guaranteed. F/m Investments, LLC is an investment adviser registered with the SEC; registration does not constitute an endorsement nor indicate any particular level of skill or ability. © 2026 F/m Investments LLC.
