Methods & Data
Calculation. Discount factors are bootstrapped from the Treasury constant-maturity par curve (bond-equivalent par yields, semiannual coupons, log-linear discount factors); the 6-month forward rate is read at each of the next eight quarter-ends and compared to the midpoint of the fed funds target range on the curve date. The fed funds target is a money-market rate (simple interest, actual/360), so the forward is expressed the same way: the growth of a dollar over the six months, as simple interest on a 360-day year. The forwards shown depend only on the 6-month, 1-, 2- and 3-year par yields; the bootstrap's first node is six months, so the 1- and 3-month points do not enter, and the 5- and 7-year points only shape the curve beyond the horizon shown.
f(τ) = (DF(τ)/DF(τ+½) − 1) · 360/182.625
vs target = f(τ) − (lower+upper)/2
Data notes. The implied path embeds the term premium and the basis between Treasury yields and fed funds, with no adjustment applied, so it is not a pure reading of policy odds. Futures-based policy odds, such as CME’s, are a licensed product; this tool uses public Treasury data only.
Data: FRED CMT series DGS6MO, DGS1, DGS2 and DGS3 (the bootstrap also reads DGS1MO, DGS3MO, DGS5 and DGS7, which do not change the forwards shown); target band DFEDTARL/DFEDTARU.
Full formulas, glossary, and data sources: Methods & Data.
Calculations used: #25 Bootstrapped implied forward short rates, #32 Implied policy path from CMT forwards.
Data sources: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Federal Reserve Board (H.15, H.4.1, H.10, SEP, FOMC, DKW, SLOOS).
Disclaimers
This is an illustrative prototype, not a quote. Treasury forwards embed the term premium and the basis between Treasury yields and fed funds, with no adjustment applied, so the implied path is not meeting-dated policy odds.
This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury.
Not a forecast by F/m. Not investment advice. This tool is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or to pursue any investment strategy. Data is believed reliable but is not guaranteed. F/m Investments, LLC is an investment adviser registered with the SEC; registration does not constitute an endorsement nor indicate any particular level of skill or ability. © 2026 F/m Investments LLC.
